President Trump’s re-election effort will hinge on many elements, some of which he will be able to control (his message, strategy, first-term record) and some of which he will not be able to control (congressional investigations, an unforeseen jolt to the economy, external events). This time, his appeal will be directed both to and beyond the 63 million people who voted for him in 2016 as he seeks to expand his margins of victory.

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