In the past few weeks, analysts who have created models to predict the outcome of presidential elections have all noted that, as of right now, President Donald Trump is on track to win re-election, possibly in a landslide.
One such analyst, American University professor Allan Lichtman, said recently that the only way Trump would lose re-election is if Democrats “grow a spine” and impeach him.
“It’s a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right,” Lichtman told CNN Wednesday.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, dating back to 1984.
Lichtman is not alone in predicting Trump will win; however, he is alone in suggesting impeachment could stop the president’s re-election.
On May 21, Politico reported on three separate election models that all predict Trump will win re-election thanks to the roaring U.S. economy. Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacrolytics, told the media outlet that the “economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.”
Ray Fair, a Yale economist who quite literally wrote the book on election modeling, has also predicted a Trump win.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” Fair told Politico. The outlet noted that his model predicted Trump would win 54% of the popular vote in 2020.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, used 12 different economic models to predict what will happen in 2020. Trump won in all of them “and quite comfortably in most of them,” Politico reported.
“If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,” Zandi told the outlet. “In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.”
These models – which are based on economic and other indicators – differ greatly from polls, which show Trump losing to perspective Democrat opponents, especially former Vice President Joe Biden.
In the additional models, Trump could lose if the economy crashes or if some major scandal breaks. As Zandi said, Trump’s popularity plummeting could also be a factor.
Any of those things – from an impeachment inquiry to an economic crash – could happen, but right now that’s just something Democrats would be hoping for in order to oust Trump.
According to election models that have a decades-long history of correctly predicting presidential election, Trump will win re-election. According to polls, which have a documented history of being wrong, Trump will lose.
If the economy remains strong going into the election, Trump will certainly lose, since Democrats running for president are promising to undo the policies that have helped the economy, such as the Trump tax cuts.