Former Vice President Joe Biden has won several recent polls when matched up against President Donald Trump, but pollsters warn that these surveys are no more reliable than the ones taken ahead of the 2016 election.
“These same geniuses all predicted that [2016 Democratic nominee] Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster, told The Hill on Friday.
“This event where the experts were blindsided has happened once, so now you have a precedent for it,” Republican pollster David Winston said. “Could it happen again? Maybe, maybe not. But you have to prepare for a surprising outcome as a real possibility here.”
“Anyone who believes that the Democratic candidate is headed for a landslide victory right now is doomed to repeat the tragic history of 2016,” Kofinis added. “It’s a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted based on these polls this far out from the general election.”
However, some pollsters think that the sheer number of polls showing high numbers for Biden cannot be ignored.
“We are beyond the ‘grain of salt’ phase on these polls,” said an unnamed top Democratic pollster. “These are not just small leads for Biden against Trump. They are substantial and confirmed in key states. While polls may move around they are relevant in that it shows Trump’s weakness in getting re-elected. He has lost key support that he had at the end of 2016 and there is no denying that.”