Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has surged into a statistical tie with Democrat 2020 frontrunner Joe Biden (D), according to an Economist/YouGov poll released this week.
YouGov surveyed 1500 U.S. adults (1127 of which are registered voters) August 10–13 and asked likely Democrat primary voters, “If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were held today, who would you vote for?”
Biden came in with 21 percent support among Democrat primary voters. Warren – who has found herself on Biden’s heels in recent weeks – came right up behind him with 20 percent support. With a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent (when adjusted for weighting) and +/- 3 percent (for registered voters), the two are statistically tied for first place.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in third place with 16 percent support – a gain of three percent in one week. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) came in with eight percent support, followed by Beto O’Rourke (D) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), who garnered five percent each. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) came in right behind them with two percent support. The remaining candidates garnered one percent support or less. Eleven percent said they were “not sure” whom they would choose:
National Democratic Primary:
Biden 21 (-1 in a week)
Warren 20 (+4)
Sanders 16 (+3)
Harris 8 (-)
O’Rourke 5 (+3)
Buttigieg 5 (-3)
Booker 2 (+1)
Gabbard 2 (-1)
Yang 1@TheEconomist /@YouGov https://t.co/WbnJkHHkG7
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 14, 2019
The poll echoes the findings of additional national surveys, showing Sanders and Warren on the rise and Harris at a stalemate, losing most of the momentum she gained after her fiery performance at the first debate in June.
It is true that the candidate who wins two of the three early primary states – New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina – tends to secure the nomination, but Biden does not have all three locked up. While the former vice president seems to have an iron grip on the early primary state of South Carolina, a recent poll shows Sanders surging in New Hampshire, topping Biden by six percent:
New Hampshire Democratic Primary:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 13, 2019
Biden is leading in Iowa by less than ten points, with Warren firmly in second place.