https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/470799-buttigieg-rockets-to-frontrunner-in-iowa-poll

Support among Iowa democratic voters for Democratic presidential candidate and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegBloomberg to spend 0M on anti-Trump ads in battleground states Hill editor-in-chief: Buttigieg could benefit if impeachment reaches Senate Trump to hold campaign rally in Florida later this month MORE (D) spiked in a new poll released Saturday, with Buttigieg leading the crowded field of Democratic hopefuls. 

Among “likely” Democratic voters in the Iowa caucus, 25 percent now say that Buttigieg is their first choice for president, a 16 percent boost since September, according to the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll. This is the first time in the poll that Buttigieg leads Biden, as well as Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersBloomberg to spend 0M on anti-Trump ads in battleground states Obama cautions 2020 hopefuls against going too far left What are Democrats going to do once Donald Trump leaves office? MORE (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenBloomberg to spend 0M on anti-Trump ads in battleground states Obama cautions 2020 hopefuls against going too far left What are Democrats going to do once Donald Trump leaves office? MORE (D-Mass).

“This is the first poll that shows Buttigieg as a stand-alone front-runner,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the organization that conducted the poll, told the Des Moines Register. “There have been four candidates that have sort of jostled around in a pack together, but he has a sizable lead over the nearest contender — 9 points. So this is a new status for him.” 

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In the former polls, Warren was the frontrunner among Democratic Iowa voters, garnering 22 percent support in September. In the poll released Saturday, her support slipped to 16 percent. Biden and Sanders are both polling at 15 percent, although Biden slipped 5 points since the last poll, and Sanders’ support increased 4 points.

Explaining the recent polling surge, Buttigieg said he began to connect with Iowa voters on a new level after Labor Day. 

Meanwhile, other Democratic candidates like Minnesota Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharElection 2020: Why I’m watching Amy and Andy 2020 Democrats demand action on guns after Santa Clarita shooting Hillicon Valley: Federal inquiry opened into Google health data deal | Facebook reports millions of post takedowns | Microsoft shakes up privacy debate | Disney plus tops 10M sign-ups in first day MORE (D) received 6 percent support from poll respondents, with Sens. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerOvernight Health Care: Warren promises gradual move to ‘Medicare for All’ | Rivals dismiss Warren plan for first 100 days | White House unveils rules on disclosing hospital prices | Planned Parenthood wins case against anti-abortion group Election 2020: Why I’m watching Amy and Andy Democratic senators introduce bill to block funding for border wall live stream MORE (D-N.J.) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisTrump to hold campaign rally in Florida later this month Overnight Health Care: Warren promises gradual move to ‘Medicare for All’ | Rivals dismiss Warren plan for first 100 days | White House unveils rules on disclosing hospital prices | Planned Parenthood wins case against anti-abortion group Harris introduces bill to prevent California wildfires MORE (D-Calif.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardSaagar Enjeti: Yang’s plan to regulate big tech misses the mark The Hill’s Campaign Report: Late bids surprise 2020 Democratic field Panel devolves over new Russian accusation about Tulsi MORE (D-Hawaii) and businessmen Tom SteyerThomas (Tom) Fahr SteyerOcasio-Cortez jabs ‘plutocratic’ late entrants to 2020 field Bloomberg’s path to the convention — and beyond Krystal Ball: Billionaires panicking over Sanders candidacy MORE (D) and Andrew YangAndrew YangSaagar Enjeti: Yang’s plan to regulate big tech misses the mark Election 2020: Why I’m watching Amy and Andy Saagar Enjeti: Breaking down Andrew Yang’s leadership on tech MORE (D) all polling at 3 percent. 

Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael Rubens BloombergBloomberg to spend 0M on anti-Trump ads in battleground states Obama cautions 2020 hopefuls against going too far left Bloomberg does not file to run in New Hampshire primary MORE (D), who has filed to appear in the Alabama and Arkansas primaries, but not the crucial New Hampshire primary, polled at 2 percent, while Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand Bennet 2020 Democrats demand action on guns after Santa Clarita shooting Biden, Buttigieg condemn rocket attacks on Israel Press: Another billionaire need not apply MORE (D-Colo.) polled at one percent. All of the other candidates in the Democratic field round to 0 percent.

The poll also revealed that 30 percent of respondents say that they have a first choice for the Democratic nominee and that their minds are made up, compared with 20 percent in September. The majority of Democratic voters, 62 percent, said they have a first choice, but they could be persuaded. 

When asked about the Democratic candidates’ chances against President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump opens new line of impeachment attack for Democrats Bloomberg to spend 0M on anti-Trump ads in battleground states New witness claims first-hand account of Trump’s push for Ukraine probes MORE, 63 percent of respondents said it was more important to nominate a candidate who has a strong chance of beating the president rather than a candidate who supports their personal policy positions. Thirty-two percent of Democratic voters disagreed.

Still, those polled were not certain that any of the four frontrunners could defeat the president heading into 2020. Thirty-one percent saying they are “almost certain” that Sanders would lose, compared to 24 percent for Warren, 21 percent for Biden and 19 percent Buttigieg. 

A quarter of those polled said they are “almost certain” Biden will defeat Trump in 2020, compared to 17 percent for Sanders, 16 percent for Buttigieg and 15 percent for Warren.a

The poll was conducted Nov. 8-13 among 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percengage points.

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