https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/505490-senate-outlook-slides-for-gop

Democrats are within striking distance of retaking the Senate majority in November, while Republicans are facing an increasingly difficult electoral map as President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump second-term plans remain a mystery to GOP Trump to hold outdoor rally in New Hampshire on Saturday Eighty-eight years of debt pieties MORE’s sagging poll numbers threaten to drag down vulnerable GOP incumbents.

Several recent polls show Democratic challengers leading Republican incumbents in Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa. The GOP is also fending off tough challenges in a handful of other states, including Colorado, Maine and Montana. 

Democrats need three or four seats to win the Senate, depending on who wins the White House. 

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Republicans still appear on track to unseat Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) in Alabama, the only Democratic senator in the Deep South. But in Michigan, one of the states Republicans saw as a potential pick-up opportunity, polls show Sen. Gary PetersGary Charles PetersACLU calls on Congress to approve COVID-19 testing for immigrants Hillicon Valley: Livestreaming service Twitch suspends Trump account | Reddit updates hate speech policy, bans subreddits including The_Donald | India bans TikTok Senators move to boost state and local cybersecurity as part of annual defense bill MORE (D-Mich.) leading Republican John James.

Here are the states in play with four months to go before Election Day:

Alabama

Jones is heading into his reelection bid as perhaps the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the country. He won his seat in a tumultuous 2017 special election, but only after allegations of sexual assault upended the campaign of his Republican rival, former state Supreme Court Justice Roy MooreRoy Stewart MooreTrump to hold rally in Sessions’s hometown for opponent in Senate runoff: report Sessions-Tuberville Senate runoff heats up in Alabama Sessions goes after Tuberville’s coaching record in challenging him to debate MORE.

It’s still unclear exactly whom Jones will face in the November general election. Former Attorney General Jeff SessionsJefferson (Jeff) Beauregard SessionsSupreme Court blocks order that relaxed voting restrictions in Alabama Justice Dept. considering replacing outgoing US attorney in Brooklyn with Barr deputy: report Tuberville campaign bus catches fire in Alabama MORE and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville are slated to face off in a GOP primary runoff on July 14 to determine which one will take on Jones this fall.

Regardless of who emerges from the GOP nominating contest, Jones is in serious political danger. Virtually every poll to come out of the state in recent months shows the Democratic senator trailing both Republicans. A recent survey from the Republican firm Cygnal showed Tuberville leading Jones by 14 points, while Sessions led by 10 points.

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Trump also remains popular in Alabama, with data from the polling firm Civiqs showing his approval at 51 percent in the state – far higher than his national average of 41 percent.

Arizona

Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyACLU calls on Congress to approve COVID-19 testing for immigrants Republicans fear backlash over Trump’s threatened veto on Confederate names Political establishment takes a hit as chaos reigns supreme MORE (R-Ariz.) is expected to face presumptive Democratic nominee Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and anti-gun violence activist, in November as she looks to hold onto the Senate seat she was appointed to in 2018 following the death of former Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainJuan Williams: Time for boldness from Biden Democrats lead in three battleground Senate races: poll Republican Scott Taylor wins Virginia primary, to face Elaine Luria in rematch MORE (R-Ariz.).

McSally was appointed after losing a bid for the state’s other Senate seat to current Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

Kelly is among the most prolific political fundraisers in the country, pulling in more than $31 million for his campaign since launching his Senate bid in early 2019. By comparison, McSally has raised about $12 million less than that, bringing in about $19 million in the same time frame.

Current polling paints a dire picture of McSally’s prospects against Kelly. A CNBC/Change Research survey released on Wednesday showed the former astronaut leading her by 9 points, and a recent New York Times/Siena College poll put Kelly ahead by a similar margin.

Colorado

Democrats have put up a political heavyweight in former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Colorado, Utah primary results bring upsets, intrigue The Hill’s Morning Report – Republicans shift, urge people to wear masks Hickenlooper beats back progressive challenge in Colorado primary MORE to take on Sen. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerTrump nominee faces Senate hurdles to securing public lands post The Hill’s Campaign Report: Colorado, Utah primary results bring upsets, intrigue The Hill’s Morning Report – Republicans shift, urge people to wear masks MORE (R) in November. Hickenlooper secured his party’s Senate nomination on June 30 after overcoming a primary challenge from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.

Hickenlooper is heading into the general election with some key advantages. Colorado has drifted to the left in recent years, a shift exemplified by the 2018 midterm elections when Democrats won control of the state government for the first time since 1936. At the same time, Democrats have racked up a roughly 80,000-person voter registration advantage over Republicans, marking a significant change from June 2016, when the GOP held a 13,000-person advantage.

Polling in the match-up between Gardner and Hickenlooper has been scarce, though Republicans concede that their incumbent is in for a tough reelection fight. But Hickenlooper also faltered more than once during his campaign, and Republicans are already plotting an onslaught against him over ethics violations that rattled Hickenlooper’s campaign in the weeks before the primary election.

Maine

Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsTrump sealed his own fate Congress eyes tighter restrictions on next round of small business help The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Stagwell President Mark Penn says Trump is losing on fighting the virus; Fauci says U.S. ‘going in the wrong direction’ in fight against virus MORE (R-Maine) shot to the top of Democrats’ target list in 2017 after she voted to confirm Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughKavanaugh rejects Illinois GOP request to block rule banning large gatherings McGrath fends off Booker to win Kentucky Senate primary Trump’s mark on federal courts could last decades MORE to the Supreme Court while he faced a sexual assault allegation.

National Democrats are backing Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon for the nomination to take on Collins in November. There have been few polls in the race, but a survey conducted in March by the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Gideon with a 4-point lead on Collins.

Nevertheless, the race is still taking shape. Gideon is set to face off against progressive Betsy Sweet in a Democratic primary on July 14. And Collins, a four-term Senate incumbent, has a political brand in her home state that few if any politicians can match, which may prove difficult for a challenger to overcome.

Still, Gideon outraised Collins in the first quarter of the year, raking in about $7.1 million to her opponent’s $2.4 million, and she’s not too far behind Collins in overall cash on hand.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisACLU calls on Congress to approve COVID-19 testing for immigrants Poll: Biden, Trump locked in neck-and-neck battle for North Carolina GOP senator: Russia should be labeled state sponsor of terrorism if intelligence is accurate MORE (R-N.C.) is up against a challenge from Democrat Cal Cunningham in this crucial presidential swing state, and recent polling suggests that the race is as competitive as ever.

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted earlier this month showed Cunningham ahead by 3 points in the race against Tillis, while a subsequent Fox News poll showed Cunningham up by 2 points. Even more recently, an East Carolina University survey showed a dead heat, with each candidate garnering 41 percent of the vote.

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Still, there are some warning signs for Tillis. Trump’s popularity in the state has dipped in recent weeks, with the ECU poll showing a 4-point drop in approval since May. Meanwhile, Biden has pulled ahead of Trump in North Carolina in a handful of recent polls.

Montana

Sen. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesTrump nominee faces Senate hurdles to securing public lands post Political establishment takes a hit as chaos reigns supreme Lincoln Project releases new pro-Biden ad in swing states MORE (R-Mont.) started the year well positioned to win a second term. But the entrance of Montana’s current Democratic Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockGianforte halts in-person campaigning after wife, running mate attend event with Guilfoyle Trump nominee faces Senate hurdles to securing public lands post Lincoln Project releases new pro-Biden ad in swing states MORE into the race in March complicated Daines’s prospects of an easy reelection bid and threw him into one of the most competitive Senate contests in the country.

Both candidates are relatively popular in Montana. But Bullock’s approval rating has soared in recent months as he took a leading role in his state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. That rise in approval prompted The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, to shift the race last month from “lean” Republican status to “toss-up” status.

There are other dynamics at play, however. Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2016 and the state appears poised to vote for him once again, meaning Daines could benefit from having the president at the top of the ballot in November.

Iowa

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Much like how Republicans had hoped to bring Peters’s Michigan Senate seat into play this year, Democrats have argued for months that ousting Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstErnst says Trump should sign defense policy bill with military base renaming provision Sunday shows preview: Lawmakers to address alarming spike in coronavirus cases Republicans fear backlash over Trump’s threatened veto on Confederate names MORE (R-Iowa) in Iowa is within the realm of possibility. And while Ernst still has an advantage in her home state, there are signs that the race is becoming more competitive.

Polling from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom released last month showed Ernst trailing her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by a narrow 3-point margin. Another survey fielded by Public Policy Polling showed Greenfield ahead by 2 points.

In one key finding, the Des Moines Register poll showed Greenfield leading Ernst by a 31-point margin among white women without a college degree.

Trump’s support also appears to be eroding in the state. The Des Moines Register poll released last month showed him holding a scant, 1-point lead over Biden in the presidential race, far below his 9-point margin of victory there in 2016.

Georgia

Sen. Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerA commonsense solution for health care coverage in the wake of the pandemic Warnock raises almost M in Georgia Senate race in second quarter Doug Collins leads Kelly Loeffler by 2 points in Georgia Senate race MORE (R-Ga.) was appointed late last year to fill the seat of retired Sen. Johnny IsaksonJohnny IsaksonWarnock raises almost M in Georgia Senate race in second quarter Doug Collins leads Kelly Loeffler by 2 points in Georgia Senate race ‘The Senate could certainly use a pastor’: Georgia Democrat seeks to seize ‘moral moment’ MORE (R-Ga.). But it didn’t take long for her to draw a bevy of challengers from both her left and her right.

Her main Republican challenger is Rep. Doug CollinsDouglas (Doug) Allen CollinsGianforte halts in-person campaigning after wife, running mate attend event with Guilfoyle Warnock raises almost M in Georgia Senate race in second quarter Comer tapped to serve as top Republican on House Oversight MORE (R-Ga.), a steadfast Trump ally who’s campaigning on his support for the president. Meanwhile, the Rev. Raphael Warnock has emerged as Loeffler’s main Democratic opponent.

The race is being run as a so-called “jungle primary,” meaning that instead of partisan primaries to determine nominees, candidates from all parties will appear on the ballot in November. If no candidate manages to break the 50-percent threshold, the race will advance to a runoff early next year.

Democrats believe that a runoff election next year could give them an opportunity to strike. A recent poll from the liberal group End Citizens United found Warnock leading Loeffler by 3 points in a head-to-head matchup. That same poll showed him running only 2 points behind Collins in a similar hypothetical matchup.

Michigan

Michigan stood as one of the few states where Republicans saw an opportunity to go on the offensive this year, believing that Trump’s surprise win there in 2016 and Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-Mich.) relatively low name ID set the stage for a potential GOP win.

But there are signs that that opportunity may be slipping. A New York Times/Siena College poll released this month showed Peters leading Republican John James by 10 points. On Wednesday, a newly released CNBC/Change Research survey found Peters leading by 7.

Meanwhile, virtually every public poll out of the state in recent months has shown Biden leading Trump in the presidential contest, suggesting that Republicans may not be able to capture the same kind of voter energy this year as they did in 2016.

Kansas

The race to replace retiring Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsPeter Thiel sours on Trump’s reelection chances: report Republicans fear backlash over Trump’s threatened veto on Confederate names Cook Political Report shifts Montana Senate race to ‘toss up’ MORE (R) in Kansas has emerged as something of a wild card given the uncertainty surrounding the state’s Republican Senate primary.

Some Republicans had sought to coax Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoBack to the future: In January 2021 America needs to rejoin the world and start leading again Iran releases photo of damaged nuclear fuel production site: report To support Hong Kong’s freedom, remember America’s revolution MORE into the Senate race, believing that his candidacy could quickly break through a crowded GOP primary field and put the party on a glide path to victory in November.

But Pompeo ultimately declined to run, leaving nearly a dozen Republican hopefuls to jockey for their party’s nomination in an Aug. 4 primary. Of real concern to Republicans is a possible primary win by former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, an ultra-conservative Trump ally who lost a 2018 gubernatorial bid to Democrat Laura Kelly.

Democrats have yet to choose their candidate to replace Roberts, but the current front-runner is state Sen. Barbara Bollier, who has outraised her primary rivals and has the endorsement of former Kansas Gov. Kathleen SebeliusKathleen SebeliusCNN to feature teen climate activist Greta Thunberg in coronavirus town hall Jerry Moran: ‘I wouldn’t be surprised’ if Pompeo ran for Senate in Kansas Mark Halperin inks book deal MORE.

It’s too early to know how the race in Kansas will unfold, but operatives on both sides of the aisle say that the seat could come into play this fall, especially if Kobach emerges as the GOP nominee.

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