With Joe Biden holding a lead of more than nine points over President Donald Trump in the average of national polls, some Democrats remain concerned that Trump could pull off another upset like he did in 2016 and win a second term in office.
In a piece published Wednesday, Thomas Edsall of The New York Times outlined some of the anxieties Democrats are expressing in private about Biden potentially losing the election.
Edsall first mentioned new voter registrations, which are trending toward Republicans in crucial battleground states — where the election might ultimately be decided.
A Democratic Party strategist wrote in a private newsletter, according to Edsall, “Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.”
And polling data, which according to RealClearPolitics indicates that Biden has a comfortable lead, might not be as telling as Democrats hope. For example, Edsall noted that there are slight dips in support for Biden among Hispanic Catholics and Black women. If the vote count ends up being close, even small dips would matter.
Regarding voting by mail, Democrats far outnumber Republicans — 2.4-to-1 — in saying they plan to cast their vote in this manner. But data so far indicates Democrats are not requesting absentee ballots in the numbers that may be necessary for Biden to win.