We’re still waiting for votes to be counted in Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona. Meanwhile, President Trump’s lead in Georgia has been dwindling all day and is now down to a few thousands votes. But there aren’t many votes left to count at this point:
Gabriel Sterling, Georgia’s voting system implementation manager, told reporters during a press conference at the state capitol Thursday there are 47,277 votes left to be counted, though he said election officials in the state are working to finish their tallies Thursday if possible.
“Having an accurate, fair count is much more vital than having a fast count,” he said at a news conference Thursday morning.
Here’s how close this is right now. According to the NY Times, Trump has 2,439,925 and Biden has 2,430,499, a difference of just 9,426 votes. Nearly every county in the state shows 98% reporting, but there are still two counties that show less than 90% reporting.
The biggest of those is Chatham County, which includes the city of Savannah. In Chatham with 87% reporting, Biden leads 57.7 to 40 percent. So it’s probably safe to say Biden will get the majority of those outstanding votes but not by a lot. Doing some very rough math, if 13% of the vote in Chatham is outstanding that’s probably around 15,000 votes. If Biden gets close to 60% of those he’ll likely close the gap by about 2,500 votes.
But Floyd county is also still counting and has reported 89% of the vote. Floyd county is currently running 70.4% for Trump to 28.4% for Biden. But it’s a smaller county so the outstanding vote is probably only around 4,000 votes. If Trump wins 70% of those he’ll extend the gap by around 1,700. Combing the two counties it’s not quite a wash, Biden still gains several hundred votes, but the change in gap between them is relatively small.
But those two counties represent a bit less than 20,000 outstanding votes. So there are more votes out there yet to be counted and it’s not clear how those will split between the candidates. I guess the point is that I think Trump could hang on to Georgia but it’s not a sure thing yet just because it’s so close.
Meanwhile, in the Georgia Senate races, it looked for a while as if David Perdue would avoid a runoff by pulling out a win over Jon Ossoff with just over 50% of the vote, but at present Perdue is down to 49.9% of the vote. He’s still leading Ossoff but because he’s under 50%, this race (and the other GA Senate race) will head to a runoff.
That’s significant because if Biden wins the White House then Dems could control a 50-50 Senate if they win both Georgia seats. I don’t think that’s likely. In fact, I think both Republican candidates are likely to win the runoff elections but with the Senate potentially on the line (assuming a Biden win) you can imagine the kind of resources the left will pour into these races. It could be hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads.
Of course if Trump pulls out a win they won’t have the same incentive. His first order of business is to win Georgia, even if it’s only by a couple thousand votes.
Here’s the press conference Georgia election officials gave this morning. Keep in mind this was 6 hours ago so vote totals have been updated since then: