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Premier Doug Ford says the change will take effect Saturday

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The Ontario government is imposing a provincewide “shutdown” in an effort to combat a recent spike in COVID-19 infections.

Premier Doug Ford says the change will take effect Saturday and continue for at least four weeks.

The government is asking Ontarians to limit trips outside the home to necessities such as food, medication and other essential services, but stopped short of imposing a stay-at-home order like it did in January.

Ford says retail stores will see limits on capacity while restaurants will be restricted to takeout, delivery and drive-through service.

The Ontario government has released a new COVID-19 modelling report.
The Ontario government has released a new COVID-19 modelling report.

The government has said schools will also remain open because they are crucial to students’ mental health.

“The decision was not made lightly,” Ford said in announcing the new measures. “I know the toll these restrictions continue to take on people’s mental health and well-being.”

The announcement comes hours after the province’s science advisers said stay-at-home orders are needed to control the third wave driven by more contagious and deadly COVID-19 variants.

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The Ontario Science Advisory Table said that otherwise, the province could see up to 6,000 new infection cases by mid-April. With the restrictions in place, the modelling show there will still be about 800 people in ICUs by the end of April.

The Ontario government has released a new COVID-19 modelling report.
The Ontario government has released a new COVID-19 modelling report.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the group, said short-term case projections will depend entirely on the public health measures implemented by the government and vaccination rates.

Brown said the province’s vaccine rollout is not reaching the highest risk communities, hampering its impact as an effective strategy to fight the pandemic.

He also said that 40 per cent of Ontario residents aged 75-79 and 72 per cent of those aged 70-74 still have not received their first dose of the vaccine.

“We are expanding first dose coverage, but it remains incomplete,” Brown said.

  1. A woman wearing a mask crosses Portage Avenue in Winnipeg on March 21, 2021.

    Rex Murphy: Canadians have been patient during the pandemic. That’s not necessarily a good thing

  2. A person looks out of a window at a quarantine hotel near Toronto Pearson International Airport in Mississauga on Feb. 24, 2021.

    About 26,000 travellers arriving in Canada were exempt from mandatory quarantine hotel

The spread of variants threatens the province’s health system’s ability to deal with regular intensive care admissions and care for all patients, he said.

The group said that COVID-19 hospitalizations are up by over 40 per cent over the past two weeks.

Brown said variants of concern are now the dominate strain of the virus in the province.

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The science advisory table also suggested Thursday that limiting inter-provincial movement — similar to what was imposed in January and expired starting in mid-February — would help brings the number of new cases down.

The Ontario government has released a new COVID-19 modelling report.
The Ontario government has released a new COVID-19 modelling report.

Ontario’s decision comes as three Quebec cities, including the provincial capital, move into a lockdown Thursday in an effort to rein in surging infections.

The lockdown in Quebec City, Levis and Gatineau will see schools and non-essential businesses close for at least 10 days, Premier Francois Legault announced Wednesday. There will also be an earlier curfew — 8 p.m. instead of 9:30 p.m. — to further discourage social gatherings.

Another four regions where cases counts are on the rise are switching Thursday to a more restrictive level of Quebec’s colour-coded pandemic system.

Legault has said the increase in infections in the affected regions isn’t due to inadequate health measures but rather to people violating those rules.

Key Findings from Ontario’s latest modelling projections

— The third wave is here and being driven by variants of concern.

— Younger Ontarians are ending up in hospital. Risk of ICU admission is 2 x higher and risk of death is 1.5 x higher for the B.1.1.7 variant.

— COVID-19 threatens health system ability to deal with regular ICU admissions and the ability to care for all patients.

— Vaccination is not reaching the highest risk communities, delaying its impact as an effective strategy.

— School disruptions have a significant and highly inequitable impact on students, parents and society. Further disruptions should be minimized.

— Stay-at-home orders will control the surge, protect access to care, and increase the chance of the summer Ontarians want.

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