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Right now, there is no such evidence. All but one of the Blue Dogs — Golden being the one — voted for Biden’s $1.9 trillion law in March to provide coronavirus relief, aid to states and new welfare spending, even as the bill offered no offsets and imposed no tax increases to pay for it. As a group, the Blue Dogs are sticking with fellow Democrats on 97.5 percent of party unity votes so far this year.

Maine’s Golden stands alone among House Democrats in his willingness to buck the party. His party unity score of 86.7 percent is the lowest among Democratic representatives and his calculation makes sense. Of the seven Democrats in Trump districts, his is the one where Trump ran strongest, beating Biden by 7.5 points. 

Still, other Democrats in Trump districts who didn’t win their own races by as comfortable a margin as Golden’s 6-point edge, aren’t moving to the center. The Democrat with the next lowest party unity score is Kind, at 95 percent. Trump won his western Wisconsin district by 5 points and Kind won reelection by 3 points.

To put Democratic unity in context, CQ Roll Call has analyzed party unity voting every year since 1955. The record for House Democrats, set in 2019 and matched last year, is an average score for all party members of 95 percent. If the voting so far this year holds, it will blow that out of the water.

Senate hopes

If Republicans can’t defeat the Biden agenda in the House, then, perhaps the battle will occur in the Senate. There, with the chamber split 50-50, Republicans need only persuade one Democrat to join them in order to block Biden’s bid to remake the social contract. 

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