Embattled Rep. Liz Cheney’s position on charges President Donald Trump played a role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot has not turned around her negative ratings back home in Wyoming, and now she’s on the verge of losing her reelection.
In polling data provided to Secrets, just 23% of regular primary Republicans plan to vote for her, 77% said they won’t.
And as bad, her image as a conservative like her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, has also been hurt. In the McLaughlin & Associates survey, 53% described her as liberal, and only 26% labeled her conservative.
The race has drawn national attention due to her feud with Trump, and Trump has promised to weigh in against her. Just today, he reiterated his call for the state Republican Party to trim the list of five challengers to one candidate, so the opposition isn’t watered down so much that it allows her to slip by.
In a statement issued by his Save America political action committee, Trump said, “The easiest way to defeat deplorable Liz Cheney is by having only ONE conservative candidate run and WIN! Wyoming Patriots will no longer stand for Nancy Pelosi and her new lapdog RINO Liz Cheney!”
Meanwhile, Cheney has upped her attention to state and local issues while leading on the Jan. 6 inquiry called for by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She also has a substantial financial war chest unmet by any challenger.
Polling from two Republican challengers angling for Trump’s endorsement shows she is in trouble. Both show that she lacks the support of 7 in 10 Republican primary voters.
Both Wyoming House Rep. Chuck Gray and Cheyenne businessman Darin Smith met with Trump recently and brought some polling data with them. A third candidate, state Sen. Anthony Bouchard, is said to be out of the running for a Trump endorsement since he admitted to sex with a 14-year-old girl when he was 18.
McLaughlin, Gray’s pollster, has worked for Trump. Pollster John McLaughlin’s survey found Gray and Bouchard as the top challengers to Cheney. There are also two others considering a challenge.
In a full six-person race, Cheney has 23%, Gray and Bouchard 17%, Smith 7%, and 30% are undecided.
In a three-person election with Cheney, Gray, and Smith, Gray came out on top with 25%, Cheney at 22%, and Smith at 13.7%.
In a two-way race, as Trump wants, Gray would beat Cheney 63% to 24%. Smith would also beat her, 54% to 22%.
A Trump endorsement would boost Gray to 66%.
McLaughlin said Trump has a 79% approval rating in Wyoming, a state he easily beat President Joe Biden in last year.
In his analysis, McLaughlin said, “It is very clear that Wyoming voters are looking for solid, conservative Trump supporter Chuck Gray to defeat Liz Cheney for Congress. These voters want an active, aggressive and unified campaign for Trump supporter Chuck Gray to hold Liz Cheney accountable for her bad vote on impeachment and her current attacks on President Trump on the January 6th committee. They want to see Liz Cheney defeated next year.”
Secrets was also provided less detailed polling from Smith’s team, which showed similar figures for his potential lead over Cheney. Smith’s polling by Remington Research Group showed him ahead of Gray in a primary.