https://pjmedia.com/columns/stephen-kruiser/2022/04/11/the-morning-briefing-do-republicans-have-a-legit-shot-at-the-senate-in-november-n1588669

Top O’ the Briefing

Happy Monday, dear Kruiser Morning Briefing friends. Keeping it real involves a lot more sardines than you might think.

For a variety of reasons, it’s difficult to not think about November’s midterm elections. Since I write about politics, I get asked about it a lot. After 2016 I don’t like to prognosticate much but it’s difficult to avoid. Political predictions are a bit addictive when you’ve been doing them for a while.

There’s also the fact that thinking about November is more fun than thinking about this mess we’re in now. Dreaming about that is easier on the liver than the amount of vodka it takes to forget that Biden is in the Oval Office.

I’ve written on a couple of occasions that Republicans shouldn’t get cocky about the midterms. I’ve also written that there’s almost no way even they can blow the opportunity to take back the House. I’m covering my bases more than I am predicting anything.

The House does look good for Republicans. Rick wrote a story over the weekend about the mood of the electorate and it’s not looking good for the Democrats. Their vulnerabilities in the House are probably impossible to overcome, even if the Republicans find a way to step all over themselves.

The Senate is a different story. A lot of my conservative friends think that winning it back is looking good. I think they’re irrationally exuberant. All of the scenarios that have the GOP taking a majority in the Senate involve winning in Georgia and Arizona.

At present, Herschel Walker does have a slight lead over Raphael Warnock, who never should have been elected in the first place. Georgia is definitely in play.

My home state is another story. Mark Kelly has been flying under the radar as he finishes out the late John McCain’s term. He hasn’t distinguished himself but he hasn’t really made many enemies. The real problem here is that Arizona Governor Doug Ducey is the candidate who would almost be a slam-dunk to beat Kelly but he’s not running. Kelly isn’t polling well against “Generic Republican” at the moment but he’s going to have a massive fundraising advantage over anyone the GOP throws at him here.

Kelly gets a lot of donations from out of state. Most of his ads the last time he ran were of the “I’m an astronaut!” variety. It’s tough to beat that. Since he hasn’t distinguished himself in any way in the Senate yet, there isn’t much that his eventual opponent (probably Attorney General Mark Brnovich) can pin on him.

If I had to place a wager on this race right now, my money would be on Kelly.

Then again, we have a lot of time until the election. At the rate the Democrats are going, they might not have any voters away from the coastal progressive bubbles.

There, back to my happy place.

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