To put this in context for you, Trump never hit 31 percent in a poll during his presidency. Not before January 6, not after.
In fact, these numbers are so abysmal for Biden that they’ve plunged his job approval in the RCP average to 37.1 percent, just one-tenth of a point higher than Trump’s nadir in December 2017.
Every time I read a news story about how unfit for office some Republican Senate candidates are and how they’re underperforming what we’d expect their polling to be in a climate like this, I nod along but inevitably end up thinking, “They’ll win anyway.” This Quinnipiac poll is why. There may well be “decoupling” happening among Democratic voters between Biden and candidates downballot but at a certain point no one will be able to escape the gravitational pull of his mind-bendingly terrible job ratings. If we end up with another surge in gas prices this fall, as some analysts expect, there’s every reason to think he might end up polling in the 20s. I can’t imagine what a midterm election would look like in an environment like that.
He’s at 31 percent among all adults, says Quinnipiac, and at 33 percent among registered voters, which isn’t the first time within the past 10 days that he’s been that low in a poll of RVs. It’s anyone’s guess at this point how bad this could get. Hold on tight.
Republicans (94 – 2 percent) and independents (67 – 23 percent) disapprove, while Democrats approve (71 – 18 percent)…
Roughly 7 in 10 Americans (71 percent) say they would not like to see Joe Biden run for president in 2024, while 24 percent say they would like to see him seek a second term. Among Democrats, 54 percent say they would not like to see Biden run in 2024, while 40 percent say they would…
Americans were also asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of potential 2024 presidential candidates…
Joe Biden: 35 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable, 5 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
Donald Trump: 37 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable, 4 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
He’s officially less popular than Trump, if only slightly, which was supposed to be impossible. Whatever you think of his policies, most Americans allegedly distinguish between the Biden agenda and the genial grandfatherly persona of the man himself; in this poll, however, his favorability is barely any higher than his approval rating. And although his own party is mostly hanging with him, the numbers on whether he should run again speak for themselves. Remember that Trump routinely pulled around 90 percent of GOP support throughout most of his term despite being underwater with the rest of the country. In that context, 71 percent approval for Biden within his own party is as soft as custard.
Every proper “doom” poll has a solid “holy sh*t” data point buried somewhere in the crosstabs, and this one is no exception. Behold:
A stunning new Quinnipiac poll shows that Joe Biden’s approval rating among Hispanics is just 19% — that is 51 points underwater and 10 points lower than it is among Whites.
I guess “unique as tacos” and “Latinx”aren’t working. pic.twitter.com/yU2OPjbr9l
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) July 20, 2022
On the economy, among all Americans, Biden is already in the 20s with a 28/66 percent, which explains his “is that real?” showing among Hispanics. In an era of persistent high inflation, a working-class constituency has abandoned ship.
I wonder which committees Senator Herschel Walker and Senator Mehmet Oz will be on. And what sort of agenda Governor Doug Mastriano will pursue in Pennsylvania.
Yesterday WaPo published a piece describing how the specter of a second Trump term is leading Biden towards running again in the vain belief that he’s the only thing that can prevent it. Given his favorability and economic approval rating in Quinnipiac’s polling, though, the truth at this point is that he may be singularly well positioned to bring it about.
Biden may seek reelection in any case, people in his inner circle say, but if Trump runs, Biden is far more likely to do so. And if Trump holds off, it will be far easier for other Democrats to approach Biden about letting someone else take on a younger Republican nominee…
When it comes to opposing Trump, “he does feel like he’s the best option,” said Ted Kaufman, a longtime Biden adviser and confidant. “But the primary thing is, how will he feel if he doesn’t do it and if Trump gets elected president? … ‘This would be very, very bad for the country, and did I do all I could to stop this from happening?’ ”
The dynamic creates an odd codependency between the two septuagenarians. For Trump, a rematch would give him an opportunity to underline his false claims that he was the real winner in 2020. For Biden, it would be a chance to put an exclamation point on his unseating of Trump and show that his win was no fluke.
If Democrats’ best option to prevent the restoration of a twice-impeached coup-plotter is a 79-year-old polling at 31 percent, they should shut down the party. Better yet, we should shut down the country.
I mean, really: There’s no one on their bench who can do better than this?
Biden: “You had to put on your windshield wipers to get literally the oil slick off the window. That’s why I and so damn many other people I grew up have cancer.” pic.twitter.com/3Y0wkVcK58
— Washington Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) July 20, 2022
Uh, does President Joe have cancer? Or is he just semi-coherent again?
There’s one curious detail in the Quinnipiac doom poll. Despite Biden’s descent into the abyss, Democrats have actually *improved* in the generic ballot since the previous Q-poll. In June Quinnipiac found the GOP leading in House races, 46/41, but today the Dems are on top, 45/44. Same trend in the Senate, which went from 48/44 for Republicans in May to a 45/45 tie now. I don’t how else to explain that except to guess that there’s a backlash to the end of Roe under way, one that won’t quite halt a red wave but may limit its impact. If so then there really is a remarkable amount of “decoupling” happening as congressional Dems run more than 10 points ahead of their leader. Hmmmm.