This Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, is one of the more remarkable sets of survey data I have ever seen. UNH surveyed New Hampshire Democrats who are likely to vote in the 2024 presidential primary. The result? Joe Biden finished second with 16%, a shockingly low total for a sitting president less than halfway through his term.
Pete Buttigieg came out on top with 17%. After Biden, the familiar cast of characters followed: Elizabeth Warren at 10%, Gavin Newsom at 10%, Amy Klobuchar at 9%, Bernie Sanders at 8%. And, oh yes–Kamala Harris at 6%. That last number may be even worse for the Democrats’ 2024 prospects than Biden’s 16%.
The pollster also asked for respondents’ second choices. Biden finished 12th at 2%. Harris was the second choice of only 4% of New Hampshire Democrats.
I’ve been saying for a long time that Joe Biden will not be on the 2024 ballot. (This is one of the reasons why polls showing Donald Trump beating him don’t give me a lot of comfort.) This New Hampshire poll certainly reaffirms that conclusion, along with confirming the deep unpopularity of Kamala Harris. It also reflects the weakness of the Democratic Party’s bench: anyone who thinks Pete Buttigieg is a serious presidential contender was probably on the Evan McMullin bus last time around.
So the field is wide open for a younger, more charismatic Democrat to emerge the way Bill Clinton did in 1992. Happily for us Republicans, there doesn’t seem to be a Democrat in the wings who fits that description.