https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2022/07/27/paul-krugman-says-we-should-ignore-the-two-quarter-rule-defining-a-recession/

And right on cue, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman says we should ignore the two-quarter rule that defines a recession:

“ThAt’s NoT hOw rEcEssIons ArE dEfinEd,” he writes:

There’s a pretty good chance the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces the numbers on gross domestic product and other macroeconomic data, will declare on Thursday, preliminarily, that real G.D.P. shrank in the second quarter of 2022. Since it has already announced that real G.D.P. shrank in the first quarter, there will be a lot of breathless commentary to the effect that we’re officially in a recession.

But we won’t be. That’s not how recessions are defined; more important, it’s not how they should be defined. It’s possible that the people who actually decide whether we’re in a recession — more about them in a minute — will eventually declare that a recession began in the United States in the first half of this year, although that’s unlikely given other economic data. But they won’t base their decision solely on whether we’ve had two successive quarters of falling real G.D.P.

Does he ever get tired of being wrong?

Anyway, we expect the two-quarter rule would be interpreted just a tiny bit differently if say the bad orange man were still in the Oval Office:

This is their next rule, no doubt:

It’s tiresome:

And remember when the Dictionary used to dunk on takes like this? Good times, good times:

What’s funny about all this is the two-quarter rule provides a benchmark so people can compare different periods based on some sort of shared metric. What happens when the data does show we’re in a recession? They’ll look even more foolish than they do now:

***

Related:

Erick Erickson zeroes in on what the Biden administration’s ‘recession’ redefinition will tell us about the MSM going forward

THERE it is! Biden seems to be setting the stage for who the WH will blame for a recession

Karine Jean-Pierre confirms the US is NOT in a recession or even anywhere near one

Biden economic adviser Brian Deese brought out to change the definition of ‘recession’ for the press

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