Suddenly Democrats are feeling more chipper about their prospects for November. Congress passed something! President Biden got to have a signing ceremony at the White House! (You have to understand that for the liberal mind, nothing good can happen in the world without a signing ceremony—it’s the key sacrament of their secular religion.) Some polls show Democrats looking better, especially in key Senate races where Republicans have nominated weak candidates.
Bill Galston today in the Wall Street Journal about “Hopeful Signs for Democrats in the 2022 Midterms.”
Surprisingly, Democrats remain tied with Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, which reflects national preferences for the parties’ House candidates. . . In Senate races, candidate quality matters more. As has happened repeatedly in recent cycles, Republicans appear to have damaged their prospects during primary contests by choosing nominees who have more appeal with their party’s base than with statewide electorates. In Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, nominees backed by Donald Trump trail their Democratic opponents, several by wide margins.
And yet there is a history of these kind of happy thoughts, and favorable polls, evaporating for Democrats on election day—in the only poll that counts, as the old saying goes.
A look back at several key Senate races over the last several cycles reveals had badly the pre-election polls overestimate Democratic strength. A few screen shots from the Real Clear Politics people tell the story, starting with Susan Collins in 2020, who every single poll predicted would lose by a wide margin:
In every case, most of the polls had the race badly wrong. Keep this in mind as November approaches, and remember that pro-Democrat polls are intended to discourage Republican voters and depress Republican turnout. (You might almost call it “voter suppression” by propaganda.)