Is Raphael Warnock facing the end of his Senate career? According to a new poll, it’s looking good for his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker. The InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 poll shows Walker now up over Warnock 47-44. Warnock lost four points as Walker picked up two points since July’s poll. The Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, polls at 4% and 5% of voters are undecided.
“Warnock is winning among younger voters and seniors but trails badly among those 40-64. Men support Walker at 60%, while women support Warnock at 55%. Walker is receiving 12% support from African American respondents,” said Towery. “With only 4% undecided, this race could very well be headed to a General Election runoff given the fact that there seem to be few points among the various demographics up for grabs.”
All changes are within the 4.2% margin of error. The poll was conducted between Sept. 6 and 7 and sampled 550 likely voters.
Georgia is one of a few Southern states where if neither candidate wins 50% of the vote, a runoff is ordered. In January of last year, Warnock won a runoff race to fill the remaining term of Republican Senator Johnny Isakson who retired due to health reasons. The Republican electorate was split and none of the candidates won the general election in 2020. Warnock now runs for a full six-year term.
A point of contention in this race is that of debates. Both candidates have called for debates with the other candidate insisting on conditions. The latest report is that Warnock has agreed to debate Walker “with conditions.” Warnock said he will debate Walker in Savannah if Walker agrees to a second debate next month. Another condition is that the candidates do not receive the topics ahead of time. (Donna Brazile was unavailable for comment.)
The poll is also good news for Governor Kemp. The Republican governor leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 50-42. If that number holds or increases for Kemp, he’ll avoid a runoff.
“Kemp leads in every age group in the survey. He receives right at 10% of African American support and a rather astounding 68% of white voters surveyed. Abrams has an impressive 54% of female voters while Kemp receives 63% from men,” Mr Towery said.
On Friday, Trump took to his Truth Social platform to praise Walker. He shared a screenshot of three recent polls that have Walker up over Warnock in the Senate race. “Herschel is looking good—a shining star for Georgia,” the former president said.
Polls haven’t proven very reliable in recent cycles, usually favoring the Democrat candidate over the Republican. In this race now, polls show Walker up as well as the race being tied at this point. Some polls rate the race a toss-up.
An InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll showed Walker with 47 percent to Warnock’s 44 percent, while an Emerson College poll found Walker on 46 percent to Warnock’s 44 percent.
And a Trafalgar Group poll found Walker leading with 48 percent support to the Democrat’s 47 percent.
All three pollsters enjoy high ratings from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight and their findings have moved their recent analysis. Though they still rate the race as a toss-up, it’s now closer than it was on Friday.
FiveThirtyEight gives both Walker and Warnock 50 chances in 100 to win the race, suggesting the contest is now a dead heat.
On Friday, FiveThirtyEight gave Warnock 52 chances in 100 of winning, while Walker had 48 chances in 100 to be elected to the Senate.
The Fox 5 poll sampling is relatively small but this is a state race, not a national one. It did poll likely voters, not registered voters, which is usually more reliable.
The latest polling results bode well for Walker. He seems to be gaining momentum over Warnock as election day approaches. It will likely be a close race but if Walker continues as he is now, that Senate seat should go to the Republican candidate. The University of Virginia (UVA) Crystal Ball forecast, which leans Democrat, rates the race as a toss-up.
Democrats are hopeful that they will keep control of the Senate in the mid-term elections. The recent polling in Georgia provides a reason for hope for Republicans that they can win a majority. There is plenty of cheerleading by Democrats as forecasters predict that Democrats will keep control. The Republicans need only to gain one seat to flip control. There are 35 seats up for grabs in November, with Republicans defending 21 of them. Three are open seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Democrats are having a moment in recent races, including special elections where the Republican candidate was assumed to be the winner and was not. The question remains whether or not the recent Supreme Court decision on abortion, as well as slowly lowering gas prices and Biden touting his recent legislative victories in Congress will move the needle and lessen the red wave in November. Democrats are more optimistic and lead in fundraising.
Republicans are starting to fight back.
The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing Republican Senate incumbents and candidates, on Tuesday launched a massive nine-figure ad blitz in five key Senate battlegrounds — Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio, as well as continuing its spots in the swing state of Pennsylvania. The group’s strategy: to portray Democratic incumbents and candidates as too far to the left and tie them to Biden and the continued high prices Americans are paying.
Now that Labor Day has passed, voters start focusing more on upcoming elections. We’re in the final stretch. Republicans only need one seat to flip in the Senate and, with the all-but-certain flip of the House to Republicans, Joe Biden’s disastrous legislative agenda will be shut down. The polls in favor of Walker at this point are welcome news.