Georgia has had the eyes of the nation on its elections throughout 2022. After Republican voters failed to show up in the January 2021 Senate runoff elections, Democrats have sworn that they’re about to turn the Peach State blue. They’ve pinned their hopes on Stacey Abrams, who lost Georgia’s governor’s race in 2018, and Sen. Raphael Warnock.
From the looks of recent polling trends, voters could dash Democrats’ hopes in November. Let’s start with the Senate race. Warnock held an advantage on college football legend Herschel Walker, whom conventional wisdom has called one of those “bad” Senate candidates. Dissatisfied with his original team, Walker shook up his campaign staff, and it’s starting to pay off.
Recent polls have shown Walker beginning to open up a lead, and it’s getting wider. A new InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll shows Walker with a three-point lead over Warnock. The poll shows Walker at 47% and Warnock at 44%, virtually flipping the last InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll, which had Warnock at 48% to Walker’s 45%.
“Warnock is winning among younger voters and seniors but trails badly among those 40-64. Men support Walker at 60%, while women support Warnock at 55%. Walker is receiving 12% support from African American respondents,” Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage told FOX 5. “With only 4% undecided, this race could very well be headed to a General Election runoff given the fact that there seems to be few points among the various demographics up for grabs.”
The RealClearPolitics polling average currently gives Walker a half-point advantage. That’s well within margins of error, but It’s a far cry from polling in the spring and early summer that had Warnock up by as much as 10 points. It’s still a tight race, but Walker’s fortunes are looking increasingly better.
The governor’s race is even more exciting for Republicans. Gov. Brian Kemp has widened his lead in the InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll to a whopping eight points. Kemp has 50% to Abrams’ 42%, with 1% favoring Libertarian Shane Hazel, 6% undecided, and 1% supporting some hypothetical “other candidate.”
Kemp’s support, thanks to his sterling record as governor and the impressive conservative victories the General Assembly achieved in 2022, is solid in almost all categories.
“Kemp leads in every age group in the survey. He receives right at 10% of African American support and a rather astounding 68% of white voters surveyed. Abrams has an impressive 54% of female voters while Kemp receives 63% from men,” noted Towery. “Kemp has support from 50% of independents. With two months to go, Kemp would seem poised to potentially escape Georgia’s General Election runoff requirement.”
RealClearPolitics has Kemp leading by five-and-a-half points. No poll throughout the year has had Abrams in the lead, though one poll in June had her tied with Kemp.
It’s tough to find polls for other statewide races, but they’re generally looking good for Republicans, even if some of them are tight. There aren’t any expected surprises in any of Georgia’s congressional districts, which Republicans drew after the 2020 census.
There are still two months to go before the general election, but trends are looking good for the GOP in Georgia. And that’s always welcome news.