A new poll from Emerson College Polling, 8 News Now, and The Hill shows key Nevada midterm races have shifted in favor of Republicans since July.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s support declined by 3 points while support for her Republican opponent Adam Laxalt rose by 1 point.
Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak’s support has decreased 4 points since July, while Republican candidate Joe Lombardo’s support has held steady.
Sisolak and Lombardo are now tied, each with 40% support, according to the poll. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided, and 4% say they will support another candidate.
Overall, 46% of voters said they would support the Republican candidate and 43% the Democrat on the generic congressional ballot. Most voters, 53%, also disapprove of President Joe Biden’s performance. Forty-three percent said they would support former President Donald Trump over Biden in 2024, while 40% would prefer Biden.
The poll also asked whether the FBI Mar-a-Lago search increased voters’ likelihood of supporting Trump in the 2024 presidential race. Forty percent said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump, 10 points higher than when the same question was asked in an Emerson national poll.
Still, a slight majority of Nevada voters expect Democratic candidates to win their midterm races. Fifty-two percent anticipate Sisolak will remain in office; 48% say Lombardo will win. In the Senate race, 54% expect Cortez Masto to win and 46% say Laxalt will.
When asked about specific voting issues, the economy was the top concern for a plurality of Nevada voters, at 42%, followed by abortion access, at 18%.
Half of voters say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes them more likely to vote in the midterm election. Abortion has become a key point of contention in Nevada races, with Democratic candidates consistently emphasizing the issue as Senate Republicans float the idea of nationwide restrictions.
Other ranking issues for Nevada voters include health care at 9%, immigration at 8%, crime at 5%, water supply at 4%, and education at 3%.
Poll numbers align with recent shifts in voter registration. As of August 2022, Democrats hold an advantage of 48,398 more registered voters than Republicans, down from a 86,723 advantage in November 2020.