Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer shared bad news for his counterpart in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, on Thursday: You’re going to lose control in 2022.
What are the details?
Schumer privately told a group of Democratic senators on Monday that Pelosi is “in trouble” and will lose control of the House after the 2022 midterm elections, Punchbowl News reported.
The comments were made as Schumer dined with his colleagues at a restaurant on Capitol Hill. Apparently, Schumer did not even try to hide his prediction because, according to Punchbowl, he “spoke loudly and his remarks were overheard by other patrons in the restaurant — and confirmed by multiple sources.”
Specifically, Schumer said Democrats only have a 40% chance to retain control of the House. He also said that Democrats have a 60% chance to retain control of the Senate.
He reportedly also predicted that former President Donald Trump will run for president in 2024, predicted some Senate races will get tighter — including in Arizona, a seat Republicans would need to help pick up the majority — and criticized former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).
But what does Pelosi think?
The California Democrat, on the other hand, is confident Democrats will emerge victorious after 2022.
Just this week, while speaking at her weekly press conference, Pelosi condemned anyone who questions her political instincts for believing Democrats will retain control of the House.
“We’re very proud of the success that we’re having, and we fully intend to hold the House,” Pelosi said. “And even though there are some among you who belittle my political instincts and the rest, I got us here twice to the majority, and I don’t intend to— our giving it up.”
Projections, however, like one from FiveThirtyEight, predict that Republicans will take control of the House. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s latest House analysis corroborates that projection.
Meanwhile, there is an important point about recent polling, which shows Democrats closing the gap on Republicans, that needs to be made.
As polling expert Nate Cohn explained, polls appear to be overestimating Democrats in the same places where they were overestimated in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Those forecasts, therefore, that say the red wave is nothing more than a ripple might be wrong, though there is no doubt that Democrats are energized in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned.