Republican J.D. Vance holds a four-point lead over Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio’s Senate race just over 50 days out from Election Day, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Friday.
Vance leads Ryan 44 percent to 40 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Thirteen percent of voters said they were undecided while three percent said they planned to vote for someone else.
The latest poll shows Vance’s lead growing since an Emerson College survey from August in which he led Ryan by three points.
Republicans were always expected to have a slight advantage in the red-leaning state, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating the contest as “lean Republican.” However, Ryan and his Democratic allies still say they have a chance at flipping the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). The Real Clear Politics polling average of the race shows Vance leading by 2.3 points.
The margin between the Republican and Democratic candidates is much larger in the gubernatorial contest. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) leads Democratic challenger Nan Whaley 50 percent to 33 percent.
“Unlike the Republican candidate for the Senate election, Mike DeWine is not only winning the support of men two-to-one with 54% of their vote, but more importantly, he also leads Nan Whaley amongst women, 47% to 38%. Without the support of Ohio women voters, Whaley’s success is unlikely,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Meanwhile, in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, former President Trump leads President Biden 50 percent to 40 percent. Trump won Ohio in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted on September 12-13 among 1,000 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.