In the post immediately below, Steve offers a couple of reasons for heightened optimism about the midterm elections. I have been saying for a while that I think the results will be better for the GOP than pretty much anyone is predicting; here is one more reason for optimism: Rasmussen finds the GOP pulling away in the generic ballot:
The 2022 midterm elections are now 25 days away, and Republicans have a seven-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat.
This is up from a four-point lead last week, although Rasmussen notes that Republicans led by as much as 10 points in mid-July. I think the takeaway is that the Democrats’ media-enabled bubble at the end of the summer has dissipated and the essentials–the economy and crime–have re-asserted themselves.
And the generic ballot is tilted toward the Democrats, as it doesn’t isolate swing districts. Lots of urban Democrats say they intend to vote blue, and most of them do, but running up those margins does no good when it comes to control of Congress. This is why if the parties are tied in the generic ballot, it portends a good year for the GOP. I would add that during this cycle, Rasmussen has not tilted Republican. It has generally found Joe Biden’s approval rating to be a little higher than most other pollsters.
It’s time to buy your popcorn and party hats.