While nothing’s certain in politics, Republicans winning a House majority on Tuesday is a safe bet at this point.

How big will House GOP gains likely be in upending the current balance of 220 Democrats, 213 Republicans, and three vacancies? Several factors will contribute, including coattails from statewide races for Senate, governor, and other contests and the approval (and, more to the point, disapproval) rating of President Joe Biden. After all, many voters blame Biden and congressional Democrats for the worst inflation in four decades and persistently high gas prices, among other national problems.

Each House district, of course, has its own quirks. And in the 44 states with two or more House seats, each district will have a new shape. Under state-run redistricting processes after the 2020 census, some seats have been altered dramatically, while others are substantially the same.

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