I have been skittish as a cat on a hot tin roof, a junkie without a fix, and a smoker who lost his pack of Marlboros. I hate waiting for election returns, and I bet you do too. It’s like waiting for results from the biopsy.
Yet here we are. The big reveal. Benign? Or malignant?
The big boss has assigned me to follow the election returns in 3 states tonight: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa–with a personal bonus of commenting on Minnesota’s general election results because I live here. Everybody in America is desperate to hear about MN, right?
The race to watch in Michigan is the gubernatorial contest between Gretchen Whitmer and her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon. Dixon is a proud MAGA candidate who won the nomination with the backing of President Trump, and she was widely assumed to be a loser of a choice. How wrong the predictions turned out to be! While far more conservative than the median Michigander, she is very smart and articulate, and doesn’t grate on the nerves as her opponent does.
Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan was a lockdown fanatic and potential Democrat presidential hopeful. I dislike her intensely and both predict and hope she loses. Early in the race she was considered a shoe-in, and the polls reflected that. But over the campaign her ratings have sunk like a stone, and now the race is essentially tied. Expect this race to be close. I called it earlier for Dixon, but that was wishcasting, not forecasting. Today the tale is told.
The Wisconsin Senate race matters both for obvious reasons–winning the seat is vital to Republican power in the Senate–and because I called the race early for Johnson and I want to look smart. Johnson is the incumbent and was considered extremely vulnerable. He is considered and likely is too conservative for the state, and his opponent Mandela Barnes has won statewide office and was favored to win by some. Barnes, though, is weighed down by the fact that he is a Democrat–and nobody likes Democrats. In September Barnes was up by 5+ points, but current polling shows him down by 3.6.
Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race has had a similar trajectory. The incumbent Democrat Tony Evers was up for most of the campaign, although by a smaller margin than Barnes, but come October he fell behind and has stayed there. His opponent Tim Michels has a very very slim lead, but expect him to pull it out by riding the wave. If Evers wins it will be a disappointment, but not a surprise.
Iowa? Does anybody actually care about Iowa politics besides Iowans? (Just kidding! Minnesotans are constitutionally required to make fun of Iowans). Both incumbent Governor Kim Reynolds and incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley are up for reelection, but not even RealClearPolitics has much on the races because they are not competitive. A nuclear explosion probably couldn’t change the outcome there.
All the constitutional offices as well as the entire legislature are up for reelection. The incumbent governor Tim Walz is favored to win, but all the down ballot constitutional offices are up for grabs. Walz’ opponent Scott Jensen has an outside chance, but no Republican has won a gubernatorial race without a credible 3rd party candidate on the ballot since Moses came down with the commandments.
Still, Minnesota could be interesting. The state has developed a particularly acute rural vs. urban rivalry, with dramatic shifts away from the Democrats outstate and consolidation of Democrat control in inner ring suburbs that used to be solidly Red. The George Floyd riots started here, and they may hurt the Democrats enough to cost them significant votes.
The big race to watch is for MN Attorney General. Former state legislator, Congressman, and DNC Deputy Chair Keith Ellison is one of the most radical BLM supporters in the nation to sit in office, and he could easily lose. If so, it will be a huge blow to the Democrat Left and to Antifa, which he an others insists doesn’t actually exist anyway.
From our fearless leader:
Don’t forget that we’re not just covering the midterms tonight but are preparing for the all-important 2024 presidential cycle as well. We need to make sure Democrats are one and done in the White House, too. If you want real in-depth analysis and exclusive content and wish to support the long-term mission, join HotAir VIP today and use promo code VIPWEEK to receive 45% off your membership!