And with it the odds of a GOP takeover in the Senate, too. On that point, however, FiveThirtyEight may just be coming back to the pack. Right now the analysts are all leaning in the direction of a Republican Senate being slightly more likely than not:
Nearly identical odds from Decision Desk for GOP at 59 percenthttps://t.co/qckrfmZkOp
Overall, Ds vowed as underdogs on E-Day after strong summer
— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) November 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight considers its 59% call a “toss-up,” but it looked a lot different in the polls just a few weeks ago:
Republicans have a 59-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, which is now frozen. That isn’t much better than the probability of calling a coin-flip correctly, although the GOP may have the slightest of edges. Considering the midterm environment and the seats that are up this cycle, it’s perhaps unsurprising that Republicans have a slightly better chance than Democrats of capturing the Senate. But the GOP’s fortunes have also improved markedly in the final weeks, as Democrats had about a 7-in-10 shot of controlling the Senate in late September.
Still, if one party does have an edge, it’s the GOP. Our forecast, which has trended toward Republicans in the final few weeks of the campaign, gives them an 80 percent chance of holding between 48 and 54 seats after this election. Our forecast predicts that, on average, Republicans will wind up with 50.9 seats — essentially 51, which would be just enough for outright control of the chamber.
That shift has been fairly dramatic, but nowhere near as dramatic as FiveThirtyEight’s tracking in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Right now, they put Mehmet Oz’ odds of winning at 57%, but that appears to be a last-minute shift of significant proportion. How last-minute and how significant?
This last-minute and significant:
Two days ago — two days — this same tracker had John Fetterman’s chances of winning the Senate seat in PA at 54%. Only on the last day before the election, when FiveThirtyEight locks its results, did this race change twenty-two points in the gap — from Fetterman’s eight-point odds advantage to Oz’s new 14-point odds lead. That’s, um … some momentum shift.
What changed? Not the polls. There hasn’t been a new poll result in the FiveThirtyEight aggregation since Trafalgar’s Oz+2 result last week, 48/46. That got reported almost simultaneously with a Marist poll result that had Fetterman up six, 50/44. RCP has Oz up 0.4% in the aggregate and includes a Fox29/Insider Advantage poll that FiveThirtyEight doesn’t, which has the same result as Trafalgar.
There doesn’t appear to be a polling shift behind this. Has FiveThirtyEight changed its assessment of Pennsylvania’s electorate? Did it rethink its adjustments for the pollsters reporting in the final couple of weeks of the election? It looks like a mystery for now, but it’s clearly one more piece of good news for Republicans.
Salena Zito has more good news as well, both in her latest column and in today’s Ed Morrissey Show podcast. Democrats and the media lost their way, Salena argues, and lost the connection to mainstream America along with it:
The Democratic Party and the cultural curators in this country that run our institutions, academia, national media, corporations, Hollywood, and our sports entities have forgotten that these people vote — no matter how much pressure you place on them, no matter how much you look down on them or call them names or believe you know better than them or think they should just deal with high prices or accept dangerous crime in their communities.
They feel much more connected to the values and work ethic of the McGuires in this world than the Hollywood actors sent out in droves to bring the votes home for the Democratic Party.
The Democrats need a much better message to appeal to voters the next time a big election is held — one that is aspirational, nondivisive, and truly inclusive.
That wasn’t their message this year.
One has to wonder whether pollsters have lost that connection, too — and are making last-minute adjustments to account for it.
The latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast features:
- My morning round-up of top stories, and the plans to provide live coverage of Election Night right here at Hot Air!
- Who better to ask about where the American electorate is heading than America’s best reporter on the road? Salena Zito joins us to discuss today’s midterms, especially on the Senate race in Pennsylvania.
- Salena also briefs us on Blake Masters’ bid in Arizona, and why she’s expecting a big night for Republicans.
- If you want real in-depth analysis and exclusive content, join HotAir VIP today and use promo code VIPWEEK to receive 45% off your membership!