- A new survey of foreign-policy experts found that 46% think Russia will fail or break up by 2033.
- The Ukraine war highlights the possibility of “internal problems” in Russia, said one author.
- A majority of the experts surveyed also believe that China will invade Taiwan within 10 years.
Nearly half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey by the Atlantic Council think tank.
The Financial Times was the first to report on the findings, which seem to suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine could have costly political consequences back home.
The survey found that 46% of the 167 experts surveyed, who come from academic, non-profit, governmental, and consultancy backgrounds, anticipate Russia’s collapse within the next decade.
The survey found that 40% of those surveyed foresee Russia breaking up internally within the next 10 years because of “revolution, civil war, political disintegration,” or another reason.
Just over a fifth (21%) considered Russia to be the most likely country to become a failed state within the next decade, more than double the next highest choice: Afghanistan.
“Ukraine clearly highlights the possibility of internal problems for Russia, and the possibility that the war itself might have boomerang effects for not only its leadership but for the country as a whole,” Peter Engelke, the Atlantic Council’s deputy director of foresight, told The Financial Times.
A British government source said that Russia could take up to 30 years to rebuild its economic and military strength, according to The Times of London.
The experts surveyed by the Atlantic Council also anticipate major developments elsewhere in the world.
The survey found that 70% of respondents agreed with a statement that China could invade Taiwan within the next decade, echoing a top US admiral’s March 2021 warning that Chinese military action could be coming by 2027.